Is the 30 year fixed mortgage rate all time low?
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
The lowest historical mortgage rate ever for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was not all that long ago. In January 2021, due largely to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage rates sank to an all-time low of 2.65%, according to Freddie Mac.
2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
By July 2020, the 30-year fixed rate fell below 3% for the first time. And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021.
Product | Interest rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30-year fixed-rate | 6.627% | 6.707% |
20-year fixed-rate | 6.347% | 6.448% |
15-year fixed-rate | 5.761% | 5.895% |
10-year fixed-rate | 5.622% | 5.805% |
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
Mortgage rate forecasts from experts
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates.
What were the highest mortgage rates in history? The highest mortgage rates in history were in the 1980s. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates hit their peak at 18.63% in October 1981. This was likely due to high inflation following the OPEC embargo.
After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%. Inflation has started to recede, but the committee has signaled it wants to see more positive data before pulling the trigger.
What is a great 30-year mortgage rate?
If you're looking to refinance, today's current average 30-year refinance interest rate is 6.91%, increasing 6 basis points from a week ago.
Most homebuyers choose a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, but a 15-year mortgage can be a good choice for some. A 30-year mortgage can make your monthly payments more affordable. While monthly payments on a 15-year mortgage are higher, the cost of the loan is less in the long run.
Cons of a 30-Year Fixed Mortgage
Higher interest rate: The longer a lender's risk of being repaid is stretched out (and the longer the lender's money is tied up), the higher the interest rate tends to be; customarily, the difference between 15- and 30-year loans is about a half-point.
Product | Interest Rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30 Year Fixed | 6.635% | 6.718% |
20 Year Fixed | 6.408% | 6.514% |
15 Year Fixed | 5.849% | 5.985% |
10 Year Fixed | 5.723% | 5.92% |
When you refinance a 30-year mortgage to get a lower interest rate, you can also pick a new term — that is, the number of years you'll get to pay your mortgage back. One common option is to maintain the current repayment term.
The 1970s and 1980s
As we headed into the 80s, it's important to note that the country was in the middle of a recession, largely caused by the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The second oil shock caused skyrocketing inflation. The cost of goods and services rose, so fittingly, mortgage rates did too.
Source | Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024) |
---|---|
Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1% |
Fannie Mae | 5.8% |
Realtor.com | 6.5% |
Redfin | 6.6% |
Higher interest rates typically have two effects on the housing market that can help drive down prices: They price some buyers out of the market, which is good for the buyers who remain, and they typically have the effect of putting downward pressure on housing prices, which is good for buyers.
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.
In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the high-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances. To understand what a favorable mortgage rate looks like for you, get quotes from a few different lenders and compare them.
Where will mortgage rates be in 2026?
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 8.50% (rate effective as of February 13, 2024).
The latest forecast from the National Association of Home Builders puts interest rates at 6.89% to finish 2023 in its October predictions. The organization says that the 30-year fixed rate will be 6.79% in 2024 and 5.72% in 2025.
Some economists are revising their rate predictions, looking for them to be higher this year than previously thought. Fannie Mae was among them, this week saying it expected the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.4%, up from its 5.9% prediction earlier this year.
ING predicts rates to range from 5% in the second quarter of 2023, rising to 5.5% in the third quarter, and then falling back to 5% in the final quarter of the year. They also predict interest rates ranging between 3% and 4.25% in 2024, staying at 3% by the end of 2025.
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