How high will the stock market be by 2025?
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
Price Forecast for 2025: $5700 (as of April 4, 2024). PrimeXBT projects the S&P 500 to reach $5,700 by 2025, influenced by factors like Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical issues.
Years Averaged (as of end of February 2024) | Stock Market Average Return per Year (Dividends Reinvested) | Average Return with Dividends Reinvested & Inflation Adjusted |
---|---|---|
30 Years | 10.222% | 7.495% |
20 Years | 9.74% | 6.96% |
10 Years | 12.681% | 9.555% |
5 Years | 14.543% | 9.879% |
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Morningstar Investment Management
Highlights: 4.6% 10-year nominal returns for U.S. stocks; 4.3% 10-year nominal returns for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of Dec. 31, 2023). Following a major U.S. market rally in 2023, Morningstar Investment Management's 10-year equity outlook dropped relative to where it was in late 2022.
Traders work on the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange on March 6, 2024. Despite the heavy concentration of the U.S. market rally in expensive, AI-focused tech stocks, analysts say Wall Street is not yet in bubble territory.
Gilreath, partner and founder of Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors, is confident and sees a bright economic and other market future ahead. He believes the current bull is likely to continue galloping for years to come, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 40,000 by 2025.
Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.
In terms of a price target, Bank of America is targeting S&P 500 5,150 to 8,700 with its S&P 500 price forecast for 2030.
Should I keep my stocks for 10 years?
Stocks are considered long-term investments. This is, in part, because it's not unusual for stocks to drop 10% to 20% or more in value over a shorter period of time. Investors have the opportunity to ride out some of these highs and lows over a period of many years or even decades to generate a better long-term return.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Long-term investments almost always give you more gains and profits and they outperform the market when the investors try and hold on to their investments and time them accordingly. Secondly, the biggest advantage of holding a stock for the long term is that it is less costly.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
But things have been looking up, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.93%) has surged by more than 33% since late 2022. While it's unclear whether prices will continue soaring, many people are hopeful that we're in the early stages of a new bull market. If that's the case, 2024 could be a great year for the stock market.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
The Yardeni Research president predicted the S&P 500 could jump to 6,500 by 2026, implying a 30% gain from the benchmark index's current levels.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research told CNBC on Wednesday that the S&P 500 could jump 26% through 2026 to 6,500. "I think this is a long-term bull market. I got still 5,400 by year-end and that was a pretty bold call a year ago, but right now that's looking pretty conservative, and why not more?" Yardeni said.
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 255.3% |
What happens if the stock market crashes?
Sometimes, however, the economy turns or an asset bubble pops—in which case, markets crash. Investors who experience a crash can lose money if they sell their positions, instead of waiting it out for a rise. Those who have purchased stock on margin may be forced to liquidate at a loss due to margin calls.
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a major cross-section of a stock market, resulting in a significant loss of paper wealth. Crashes are driven by panic selling and underlying economic factors. They often follow speculation and economic bubbles.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
Period | Average annualised return | Total return |
---|---|---|
Last year | 19.7% | 19.7% |
Last 5 years | 12.0% | 76.6% |
Last 10 years | 14.4% | 282.9% |
Last 20 years | 10.1% | 586.8% |
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